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The exit polls for the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections are out, and they reveal a fragmented mandate with no clear winner. Most polls suggest that the National Conference (NC) and Congress alliance is inching toward a majority, but it remains uncertain if they will achieve the required numbers to form a government on their own.
According to the India Today-C Voter Exit Poll, the NC-Congress alliance is expected to win between 40 to 48 seats in the 90-member assembly, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is projected to secure 27 to 32 seats. The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is likely to garner six to eight seats. This puts the NC-Congress alliance close to forming the next government, but they may still fall short of an outright majority.
Another poll by Republic Matrize shows a similar trend, predicting 31 to 36 seats for the NC-Congress alliance and 28 to 30 seats for the BJP. This survey also projects that the PDP will win five to seven seats, while other smaller parties and independents could win between eight to 16 seats.
In the Dainik Bhaskar Survey, the NC-Congress alliance is estimated to secure 35 to 40 seats, while the BJP is expected to win 20 to 25 seats. The PDP is likely to gain four to seven seats, with other parties taking between 12 and 16 seats.
The elections saw a 63.88% voter turnout, marking a significant rise from the 58.58% recorded during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. This is the first Assembly election held in Jammu and Kashmir since the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019. The results will be declared on October 8, after a three-phase election conducted on September 18, 25, and October 1.
A Fragmented Verdict?
A potential hung assembly looms large over Jammu and Kashmir as many exit polls predict a fragmented mandate. Axis My India forecasts 35 to 45 seats for the NC-Congress alliance, while the BJP is expected to win between 24 to 34 seats. The PDP, according to this poll, may only secure four to six seats, while others could win up to 23 seats, making them significant players in the post-election scenario.
A fractured mandate suggests that independents and smaller parties could hold the key to power. The projections indicate that approximately 15 seats may go to independents and smaller parties. Should these forecasts prove accurate, they could emerge as the kingmakers, making coalition-building a complex and lengthy process.
Historical Context and Key Contenders
In the 2014 Assembly elections, the PDP emerged as the largest party with 28 seats, while the BJP won 25 seats. The NC and Congress secured 15 and 12 seats, respectively. This time around, the key contest is between the BJP and the NC-Congress alliance, with the PDP and several strong independent candidates also in the fray.
The current election holds particular significance as it is the first since the scrapping of Jammu and Kashmir’s special status under Article 370. The BJP, which has campaigned on a platform of development and national integration, faces a tough challenge from the NC-Congress alliance, which has focused on restoring Jammu and Kashmir’s statehood and addressing local concerns such as land rights and employment.
NC-Congress Alliance Confident
Jammu and Kashmir Congress president Tair Hameed Karra expressed confidence in his party’s alliance with the National Conference, stating that they are in a “comfortable position” to form the next government. Karra emphasized that the election was about keeping the BJP out of power, restoring statehood, and protecting land and job rights for local residents.
Karra remarked, “I see the NC-Congress alliance comfortably positioned to form the government. This election was mainly about keeping the BJP away from the corridors of power and ensuring the restoration of statehood with guarantees for land and jobs.”
BJP Optimistic Despite Exit Polls
Despite the exit polls not being in their favor, BJP leaders remain optimistic about their chances. Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini expressed confidence that the BJP would secure a majority and form the government. After offering prayers at the Jyotisar Temple, Saini stated, “We have worked for every section of society and have freed the state from regionalism and dynastic politics. We are confident that the BJP will once again form the government.”
Meanwhile, BJP candidate from Ambala Cantonment, Anil Vij, dismissed the exit polls, saying, “Exit polls have been wrong before. People are still voting, and the last voter hasn’t cast their vote yet. The final percentage is yet to come. We will prove the exit polls wrong, and the BJP will form the government on October 8.”
Conclusion
As Jammu and Kashmir braces for the results on October 8, all eyes are on whether the NC-Congress alliance can cross the majority mark or if the state will see a hung assembly. With multiple exit polls indicating a close contest and fragmented mandate, the role of independents and smaller parties is expected to be crucial in deciding the future of the state.
